🥜 When will Bitcoin go back up?

PLUS: We're still on track

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Today’s edition is brought to you by OrngePill

GM to all you crypto nuts. Crypto Nutshell #379 bracin’ ourselves.. 🫣 🥜

The crypto newsletter that's more exhilarating than racing through the streets of Tokyo... 🚗💨

tokyo drift

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

  • 🇯🇵 Metaplanet does it again

  • 🚧 When will Bitcoin go back up?

  • 🏇 We’re still on track

  • 💰 And more…

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MARKET WATCH ⚖️

market data

Prices as at 7:50am ET

Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section

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METAPLANET DOES IT AGAIN 🇯🇵

BREAKING: Japanese public firm Metaplanet buys another $2.5M of Bitcoin

Bitcoin

In the wake of all the selling news that’s going on…

“Asia’s MicroStrategy” has acquired more Bitcoin.

In a recent filing, Metaplanet announced that they purchased an additional 42.47 Bitcoin for ¥400 million (~$2.5 million USD).

As of July 8, the company now holds 203.73 Bitcoin acquired for ~$12.74 million at an average purchase price of $62,528.48 per BTC.

DL tweet

In case you haven’t heard of Metaplanet before, here’s the rundown.

They aren’t a Bitcoin or a crypto company.

Metaplanet (publicly traded on the Tokyo Stock Exchange) originally specialised in hotel development and real estate.

But now they’ve shifted their attention towards Bitcoin, following the exact playbook of Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy.

And since adopting a Bitcoin strategy, Metaplanet’s stock price has increased by 370% 😱

Although it has taken a bit of a tumble recently with Bitcoin’s recent price crash.

metaplanet

With this recent purchase, Metaplanet now has the 28th largest Bitcoin holdings out of publicly traded companies.

But out of this list, they’re one of few that aren’t a Bitcoin / crypto focused company.

Corporate adoption of Bitcoin is increasing and it’s a proven strategy to increase a company’s stock value.

The question now on everyones mind:

Who will be next? 🤔

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Orngepill

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WHEN WILL BITCOIN GO BACK UP? 🚧

With the recent market correction, there’s one question on everyones mind:

When will Bitcoin go back up?

Top on-chain analyst Willy Woo, the answer is simple:

As soon as the worst Bitcoin miners finally die.

Willy Woo

There was an unusual confluence of factors that contributed to the latest crypto sell-off.

These were:

  1. Mt. Gox Selling ⛰️

  2. German Government Selling 🇩🇪

  3. United States Government Selling 🇺🇸

However, there’s been an on-going contributor that is perhaps even worse than all 3.

And that is - Miner Capitulation.

Each time there is a Bitcoin halving, the amount of Bitcoin received by miners gets cut in half.

There’s a huge amount of Bitcoin miners all over the globe. These Bitcoin miners are major operations.

They are huge businesses, with equipment costs, staff costs & of course, the cost of electricity.

As soon as the Bitcoin halving hits, miners income gets cut in half.

For most Bitcoin miners, this is okay. The Bitcoin price has generally risen high enough, which offsets the cut in income.

However, there is a cohort of Bitcoin miners that are not okay.

The worst, most inefficient Bitcoin miners, all of a sudden are unprofitable.

To cover costs, they must start selling their mined Bitcoin & any Bitcoin on their balance sheet.

This floods the open market with Bitcoin. 🌊

This is called miner capitulation & it’s why after every halving we usually see a period of choppy or downwards price action.

The worst miners are selling off their Bitcoin to cover costs. All in the hopes that the price of Bitcoin will rise high enough that they again become profitable.

As we pointed out last week, we are currently in the longest period of miner capitulation we have ever seen.

We know this as we can see the Bitcoin Hash Rate falling, which is a sign miners are calling it quits.

In his latest tweet, Willy Woo pointed out it’s not over yet:

willyw1

As soon as this chart turns around, we’ll know miner capitulation is finished & Bitcoin will again start rising.

bitcoinhash

The good news?

As of writing, the Bitcoin hash-rate has bounced significantly. Which may be a sign that it is already turning.

Just maybe - the worst is over?

However, it’s too early to tell for sure.

We’ll keep an eye on this and provide any updates. 👀

But fear not - the worst Bitcoin miners can only hold on for so long. 🪦

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WE’RE STILL ON TRACK 🏇

With Bitcoin’s recent dip everyone on Crypto Twitter was losing their minds.

But when you look at the data, it’s really nothing to worry about

Since the cycle low during the collapse of FTX, Bitcoin has risen by more than 250%.

And if we compare this price performance to previous cycles, we can see that we’re still right on track.

onchain

Taking a look at the chart above, you can see how we’re basically in the exact same spot as the 2015 and 2018 cycles.

Here’s the breakdown:

  • 🔵 2015 to 2018: +232.48%

  • 🟢 2018 to 2022: +261.48%

  • ⚫️ Current cycle: +259.78%

So far, this cycle has actually outperformed the 2015 cycle

Historically, Bitcoin has struggled in the first three to six months following a halving. (as mentioned above due to Miner capitulation)

That’s exactly what we’ve been seeing.

But despite this recent correction, it’s clear that we’re still on track with past cycles.

And if past performance is any indication…

We’re on course for some sweet price appreciation from August onwards.

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CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜

Tron to develop gasless stablecoin transfers by Q4. Justin Sun, the founder of Tron, announced on July 6 in a post on X that his team is working on enabling gas-free peer-to-peer (P2P) stablecoin transfers.

BTC price risks ‘double top’ — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week. Bitcoin stares down a heavy macro data week with BTC price action showing “dead cat bounce” behavior.

Germany Sill Holds $2.2B Worth of Bitcoin, Blockchain Data Show. Germany has been running down its coin stash since mid-June.

Germany Moves Another $28 Million in Bitcoin to Bitstamp, Coinbase. The German government moved 250 BTC each to the two crypto exchanges, with a further 500 BTC sent to an unidentified address.

WHAT WE’RE READING 📚

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CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️

Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

How often is Bitcoin's mining difficulty adjusted?

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MEME CORNER 😂

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

meme

Trivia Answer: A) Every two weeks 🥳 

Every 2016 blocks, or roughly every two weeks, the Bitcoin protocol adjusts the target used in Bitcoin mining.

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.

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