🥜 Why Bitcoin is booming: BlackRock

PLUS: Power Of HODL

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What we’ve cooked up for you today…

  • 🪨 Why Bitcoin is booming again: BlackRock

  • 💪 The power of the HODL

  • 🕰️ History often rhymes

  • 💰 And more…

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MARKET WATCH ⚖️

market data

Prices as at 4:15am ET

Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section

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WHY BITCOIN IS BOOMING: BLACKROCK🪨

Breaking: BlackRock fine-tunes Bitcoin ETF proposal with critical amendments addressing security, valuation and compliance concerns

Larry Fink

Yesterday, BlackRock made 21 notable amendments to its Bitcoin ETF application.

These updates clearly show that BlackRock is committed to offering the highest quality product it can.

From the amendment we can see that BlackRock aims to:

  • Increase security measures for private keys and BTC holdings

  • Ensure reliable and transparent valuations

  • Lay out contingency plans for disruptive events

The amendment also mentions the SEC’s case against Ripple. They use this as an example of potential consequences of BTC being labelled a security.

It was also revealed that a seed capital investor purchased 4,000 shares for $100,000 ($25 per share).

(Another hint that the ETFs are about to be launched)

In reaction to the news, Bitcoin ripped to a new yearly high of $44,448.00.

The spot Bitcoin ETF is closer than ever before…

We’ve only just touched the surface here on these amendments…

If you’d like to read the full breakdown, checkout this article from CryptoSlate.

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THE POWER OF THE HODL 💪 

Michael Saylor may hold the title of the world’s biggest Bitcoin bull. 

But second biggest?

You could make an argument for the president of El Salvador - Nayib Bukele.

Nayib Bukele made Bitcoin an official currency of El Salvador on September 7, 2021.

nayibbtc1

El Salvador then made their first purchases for a total of 400 Bitcoin, costing $18.7 million dollars. El Salvador continued to make Bitcoin purchases over the following 2 years.

Unfortunately, their first purchases almost perfectly coincided with the 2021 Bitcoin all-time high. 

At one point, El Salvador faced a loss of ~37% on their Bitcoin strategy. This equated to a loss of about $45 million dollars on its then $76.5 million worth of holdings. 

The mainstream media had a field day:

fail2
fail4
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However, President Bukele stuck to his strategy. He held his conviction. 

On November 17, 2022, he announced a new policy.

El Salvador would buy a single Bitcoin each day, indefinitely.

1btctweet1

How is his strategy doing today?

President Bukele tweeted this week that his strategy is now back in profit. 🥳 

After accumulating 2764 Bitcoin, El Salvador’s Bitcoin portfolio is now worth over $130 million.

They are sitting on a healthy profit of +$3.5 million.

tweet

Moral of the story? HODLers always win. 

portfolio1

El Salvador’s Bitcoin portfolio
🟢 = Purchases
Dotted Green Line = Cost Basis

The story of Nayib Bukele & El Salvador is a perfect example of why DCA & HODLing is a fantastic strategy. 

Even if you time the market poorly (everyone does eventually), if nothing has fundamentally changed & your investment thesis is correcteventually you’ll win out. 🏆 

Our prediction for 2024?

We will see other countries follow in El Salvador's footsteps. (looking at you Argentina 🇦🇷 👀)

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HISTORY OFTEN RHYMES 🕰️

Today we’ll be comparing previous Bitcoin cycles to where we are today.

And honestly?

It’s spooky how aligned they are… 👻

Glassnode has created the chart below that allows us to easily compare the cycles of Bitcoin. It simply tracks Bitcoin’s price performance from it’s previous all-time high.

The 2011 to 2013 cycle is excluded from the comparison as Bitcoin was still extremely new and finding its footing.

on chain 1

Here’s the price performance of previous cycles (from ATH) to today in the cycle:

  • 🔴 2013-17: down -42% from ATH

  • 🔵 2017-21: down -39% from ATH

  • ⚫️ 2021-23: down -37% from ATH

Are you seeing how close they are?

Right now they are all within 5% of each other…

We can also compare cycle performance from the other end, the cycle low.

And like the previous chart, price performance between cycles line up extremely close..

on chain 1

Here’s the price performance of previous cycles (from cycle low):

  • 🔵 2015-18: +119%

  • 🟢 2018-22: +128%

  • ⚫️ 2022-23: +146%

Interestingly 2022-23 has had the highest 1 year returns out of the last two cycles.

Now we’re not saying that Bitcoin is going to exactly mirror previous cycles.

But it is kinda insane how well this cycle is lining up with the previous two.

If it continues to line up with the previous cycles, we are in for a BIG 18 months ahead…

We’ll leave you with the classic Mark Twain quote:

“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.”

Mark Twain

CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜

WHAT WE’RE READING ✍️

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CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️

Beehiiv has just added support for in built trivia questions, select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. Let’s see how this goes!

When is the SEC’s final deadline for Ark Invest’s Bitcoin ETF?

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MEME CORNER 😂

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Trivia Answer: C) 10th January 2024 🥳 

Ark Invest is first in line with the final decision deadline on 10th January 2024. However analysts are predicting that all ETFs will be approved simultaneously.

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.

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