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- 🥜 Crypto Expert: 5 months left to buy Bitcoin
🥜 Crypto Expert: 5 months left to buy Bitcoin
PLUS: Coinbase beats expectations
GM to all 15,997 of you. Crypto Nutshell #134 slippin’ by. 🦑 🥜
We’re the crypto newsletter that's more vibrant than a candy mogul offering a golden ticket to his factory... 🍫🎟
Today, we’ll be going over:
💸 Coinbase exceeds expectations
🌠 5 months until Bitcoin goes parabolic
📉 Exchange exodus continues
💰 And more…
MARKET WATCH ⚖️
Prices as at 6:30am ET
Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section
COINBASE EXCEEDS EXPECTATIONS 💸
BREAKING: Coinbase Beats Q3 Earnings Estimates While Trading Volume Falls
Coinbase has beat its revenue expectations, recording $674 million. Analysts predicted Coinbase’s revenue to be around $650 million.
In a letter to shareholders, Coinbase noted:
“On track to deliver meaningful positive adjusted EBITDA for 2023.”
Coinbase’s adjsuted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) came in at $181 million. That marks the third consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA.
Consumer trading volume for the quarter was $11 billion, down ~21% quarter over quarter. Coinbase notes this was due to the global decline in trading activity:
“This macro backdrop contributed to global spot market trading volumes declining 24% Q/Q in Q3… Similar to last quarter, within consumer, advanced trading volume declined more than simple trading volume, which we believe was driven by the low volatility environment.”
Now why are we talking about Coinbase here?
The simple answer is that they’re a super important player in the crypto space.
Coinbase is still in the middle of a legal battle against the SEC (for the full story click here).
Brian Armstrong (Coinbase CEO) has been extremely vocal about his disagreements with the SEC. Oral arguments are set to be heard January 17, 2024.
Mark this date down in you calendar. If Coinbase win their case, the way crypto is regulated in the US could be completely overhauled (for the better).
"While legislating can be slow and unpredictable, we are still optimistic the U.S will get this right.”
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5 MONTHS UNTIL BITCOIN GOES PARABOLIC 🌠
On-Chain Bitcoin expert, Plan B, believes we have 5 months until Bitcoin goes parabolic.
For those that haven’t heard of PlanB, he’s the most popular on-chain Bitcoin analyst with almost 2 million followers.
The reason behind his popularity is because he’s the brains behind the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model. Which has proven itself as one of the most accurate pricing models for Bitcoin.
In his latest tweets, he argues Bitcoin is beyond the point of no return. There’s only 3 questions left:
When does FOMO start?
How high will this bull market go?
How long will it last?
Bitcoin is beyond the point of no return, a bull market (green) is inevitable, IMO. The only questions are: when does FOMO start, how high will this bull go, and how long will it last?
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD)
8:58 PM • Nov 1, 2023
He also showed off his Bitcoin Market cycle model which breaks down Bitcoin into 4 phases:
🟡 - Distribution phase
🔴 - Bear Phase
🔵 - Accumulation Phase
🟢 - Bull Phase
We are currently in an accumulation phase. Which is characterised by a slow grind upwards in price.
Plan B predicts that this will last up until the Bitcoin Halving, which will happen April 18th, 2024.
5 months away.
We will then move into a bull phase, which is characterised by the parabolic moves up in price we know & love. 🤑
Stock-to-Flow model (grey) is prediction, because we know future S2F-ratio. Market Cycle model (color) is detection, because it's based on counting specific onchain txs, and we only know current (and past) utxo set.
IMO:
🔵 slow rise towards April 2024 halving
🟢 after halving— PlanB (@100trillionUSD)
3:14 PM • Nov 3, 2023
How long will this bull phase last?
That’s anyones guess, but if history is a guide, they generally last ~18 months from the Bitcoin halving.
Which would take us to October 2025.
How high does Plan B think we will go?
In his last video update, his model is predicting a Bitcoin price of $532,000 at the peak. 🤯
I think we’d all be happy if it even gets halfway there. 😉 🥂
EXCHANGE EXODUS CONTINUES 📉
Today we’ll be taking a look at exchange deposit and withdrawals.
2023 has been a wild year so far. We’ve seen a significant shift in the Bitcoin exchange flow.
The rate of withdrawals is significantly outpacing the rate of deposits.
Before going any further here’s how to read this chart:
🟢 Total Deposit Transactions
🔴 Total Withdrawal Transactions
🟣 Difference between Withdrawals and Deposit
Today, 61,000 Bitcoin has been withdrawn from exchanges. 😱
A bit of a step up from the year-to-date low of ~43,000 Bitcoin.
Investors taking Bitcoin off of exchanges is a clear signal of long-term conviction. You don’t withdraw your Bitcoin if you intend to sell anytime soon.
Deposits have also been trending lower even with a recent minor uptick to 50,000 Bitcoin.
Investors typically deposit Bitcoin to exchanges for selling purposes. Therefore we can make the assumption:
Less deposits = Less selling pressure in the market 📉
From this data, the most notable stat is the growing gap between withdrawals and deposits.
As of today, there were 10,000 more Bitcoin withdrawn from exchanges than was deposited.
The largest gap of this year, and the second largest of all time.
The largest gap came in the wake of the FTX collapse, where 80,000 Bitcoin were withdrawn. (people were freaking out about exchanges at this point in time… us included.)
Bottom Line: There’s been a notable shift in investor sentiment. Investors are showing that they’re in it for the long haul. 😎
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
WHAT WE’RE READING ✍️
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CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
Did you read yesterday’s edition?
Approximately what percentage of the Bitcoin supply has not moved in over 3 months?
A) 88.56%
B) 90.23%
C) 74.59%
D) 46.21%
Find out the answer at the bottom of “Meme Corner” below 😀
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: A) 88.56% 🥳
That’s right! What an absolutely insane stat. Checkout the full breakdown here.
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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research
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