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- 🥜 Demand shock, supply shock coming
🥜 Demand shock, supply shock coming
PLUS: It is finally over?
Today’s edition is brought to you by Animus Technologies.
GM to all 42,274 of you. Crypto Nutshell #218 bluesin’ in. 🎷 🥜
We’re the crypto newsletter that's as exhilarating as a group of street racers pulling off high-stakes heists... 🚗💨
What we’ve cooked up for you today…
🤔 Is the selling over?
✏️ It’s just math
🤑 Bitcoin wallet check
💰 And more…
MARKET WATCH ⚖️
Prices as at 5:20am ET
Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section
IS THE SELLING OVER? 🤔
BREAKING: Grayscale’s GBTC profit taking likely over, easing Bitcoin selling pressure says JPMorgan
Sell-side pressure from Grayscale’s GBTC may finally be over. 😮💨
At least according to a research report from JPMorgan…
As we know by now, Bitcoin dropped ~20% in two weeks following the launch of the Bitcoin ETFs.
The main driver for this crash was the insane amount of GBTC being sold.
(FTX liquidated their entire position, worth nearly $1 billion)
On Thursday, JPMorgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, had this to say:
“Given $4.3b has come out already from GBTC, we conclude that GBTC profit taking has largely happened already… this would imply that most of the downward pressure on bitcoin from that channel should be largely behind us.”
And that’s exactly what happened.
Friday saw the lowest amount of GBTC outflows since day 1 at -$255.1 million.
Bringing total GBTC outflows to just over $5 billion.
It’s also worth pointing out how well Bitcoin absorbed this sell pressure from GBTC outflows. A ~20% correction is one of the smallest drawdowns we’ve seen during a bull-market uptrend.
With sell-side pressure finally easing, Bitcoin’s price began to rebound.
Briefly breaking through $42,000 at the time of writing.
(Bonus Jim Cramer being comically wrong again 😂)
Inverse Cramer is literally the greatest trading signal of all time
We’re so back. 😎
TOGETHER WITH ANIMUS 👾
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IT’S JUST MATH ✏️
A demand shock is playing out. A supply shock is about to follow.
Investors need to be paying attention.
That's the latest message from hedge fund founder, Mark Yusko.
Yusko believes we are going through an unprecedented period.
It's not going to happen overnight, but $30 trillion has been unlocked for Bitcoin.
Yusko believes that 12 months from now, we'll look back on the ETFs and see that $30 - $60 billion dollars has flowed into Bitcoin.
"It's not going to happen overnight. Let's say that a year from now you do 10 basis points, 20 basis points. We're talking about $30 to $60 billion of demand."
(That’s the equivalent of adding ~12.5 Michael Saylors in demand to Bitcoin)
Visual representation of how many Saylors of demand has been added
But that’s not all.
The Bitcoin halving is coming up in 81 days time.
We're also about to add a supply shock to the mix.
"Then you get a supply shock. The supply shock is really simple. You cut the block rewards in half. Unless the price goes up, half the miners would be out of business. Because their costs are fixed. So the price starts to rise."
But where does this leave the price?
Yusko believes that shortly following the Bitcoin halving, prices will double:
"The fair value basically doubles... maybe we don't go from $50,000 to $100,000. But let's say we go from $50,000 to $80,000 for fair value."
As prices rise, this leads to FOMO. It's here where we see speculators & gamblers rush back into crypto.
"Then the speculators and the gamblers come in. They start levering up… In that June 2024 to June 2025 period following the halving, we get these parabolic stupid rallies."
Where will that leave the Bitcoin price?
"Let's be conservative, we go to $130,000 - $150,000. Somewhere in that range. That's going to happen."
A demand shock from the ETFs. Then a supply shock from the Bitcoin halving.
Yusko believes it all comes down to math. Sooner or later, a six-figure Bitcoin is coming.
P.S.
Next week, Mark Yusko is coming on the Crypto Nutshell for an exclusive interview.
Yusko is a hedge fund manager with decades of experience. His current focus is on Bitcoin, crypto, & Web3.
If you have any questions you want answered - leave them below! We’ll get through as many as possible. 🫡
Do you have a question for Mark Yusko? 🤔 |
BITCOIN WALLET CHECK 🤑
Today we’ll be taking a look at the number of addresses with a non-zero balance.
This metric is nice and simple. It provides a high level overview of the Bitcoin Network’s user base/activity.
(keep in mind one wallet does not equal one user. A user can have many wallets)
Increasing number of addresses: indicates increased adoption levels. This goes hand in hand with expanding on-chain activity 📈
Decreasing number of addresses: indicates users are purging their entire wallet balance (major sell-offs) 📉
From the chart above you can see how this metric has basically always been increasing. (aka Bitcoin’s always growing) 📈
As of today there are 51,391,823 addresses with a positive balance. Yes, even a wallet holding a single satoshi counts here.
This metric actually hit an all-time high on January 21st at 51,858,525 addresses.
Although that is a pretty significant dip, with metric’s like these you have to zoom out and look at the long-term trend. 🔭
And that long-term trend clearly indicates that the Bitcoin network is expanding.
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
BlackRock warned SEC lack of in-kind orders for Bitcoin ETF shares could hurt investors. A novel aspect of the new spot Bitcoin ETFs, as approved by the SEC, is the cash-creation mechanism for issuing and redeeming shares.
Court status report confirms Binance, SEC at odds. A joint status report from Jan. 25 reveals ongoing disagreements between Binance and the U.S. SEC over evidence production and the arranging of witness testimonies.
Roughly ‘60% chance’ of spot ETH ETF approval in May. After expected SEC delays, experts turn to May as the next date to watch for potential ether ETF decisions.
WHAT WE’RE READING 📚
Want to get even smarter? Check these out.
p.s. all completely FREE
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CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)
Which newly launched Bitcoin ETF currently has the largest BTC holdings?(excluding Grayscale's GBTC) |
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: A) BlackRock 🥳
After 11 days of trading, BlackRock has ~$2 billion in Bitcoin, with Fidelity being a close second (~$1.75 billion)
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